From Crimea to the Baltic: Russian A2/AD and the Future of Regional Security
On November 17–18, 2025, Vilnius hosted the international security and defence conference “Defending Baltics” for the second time. This forum brought together experts, senior military officers, and politicians from NATO countries and Ukraine to analyse the lessons of the Russian aggression against Ukraine for NATO’s eastern flank.
Traditionally, this analytical document is prepared after the conference. Its purpose is to highlight key lessons for countries in the Baltic Sea region and provide recommendations for the development of military thinking and capabilities. The 2025 “Defending Baltics” conference emphasized the Baltic Sea region’s defence preparedness. It is important to recognize that different standards of readiness for a potential conventional conflict with Russia should apply to this region compared to Western European or North American allies. This is due to the area’s close proximity to Russia, its shallow defence depth, and the unique aspects of its demographics, economy, and military capabilities. Our view of the Baltic Sea region can sometimes be too limited, focusing only on challenges relevant to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. However, the Baltic Sea region includes eight countries directly bordering the sea that are part of Western civilization. This group features the European economic powerhouse Germany, Poland, which is emerging as a military force, and the new NATO members – Sweden and Finland. Additionally, security in the Baltic Sea region depends on the involvement of Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and the US. Therefore, regions such as the Arctic, North Atlantic, Central, and Western Europe are vital for the security of the Baltic Sea area. Meanwhile, NATO’s eastern flank acts as the gateway from East to West, making the entire Western community invested in maintaining control and security of this region.
The focus of this document is on the experience and capabilities of a potential aggressor to ensure the A2/AD3 effects in the Baltic Sea region in the context of armed conflict. We will discuss Russia’s likely interests in the Baltic Sea region, review aspects of the Kremlin’s decision-making process and examine the shaping operations that could create the conditions to achieve related goals. We will analyse in detail Russia’s experience in conducting A2/AD operations. The document provides recommendations to decision-makers on the development of NATO and national capabilities.
